Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 37.666732 42.824804 48.971115 57.000755 67.483509 81.132637 101.068348
2025-04-20 30.651354 36.863280 45.062304 57.240338 76.067018 106.779364 169.221481
2025-04-27 26.549006 33.200464 42.652880 58.183787 86.048802 143.464118 326.943279
2025-05-04 23.768438 30.598857 40.871357 59.205695 96.848580 196.469333 858.874245
2025-05-11 21.585864 28.391336 39.074291 59.442436 106.473470 267.963848 6523.058705
2025-05-18 19.698577 26.302456 36.991594 58.399838 112.720236 352.175032 NaN
2025-05-25 18.389472 24.914393 35.797749 58.712040 123.129775 519.333188 NaN
2025-06-01 17.198457 23.558123 34.412317 58.184993 131.049331 772.583460 NaN
2025-06-08 16.152259 22.320153 33.044143 57.312258 137.551350 1206.014824 NaN
2025-06-15 15.262021 21.252303 31.839110 56.512815 144.172336 2170.970678 NaN
2025-06-22 14.532344 20.388126 30.904887 56.150915 152.925762 6194.580419 NaN
2025-06-29 13.770094 19.405570 29.625343 54.607915 155.157117 27238.600908 NaN
2025-07-06 13.568986 19.389715 30.270879 58.469371 192.877211 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 12.976332 18.634660 29.328274 57.645296 202.116266 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 12.546163 18.139206 28.869627 58.158270 223.526170 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 12.177372 17.726911 28.538413 58.995179 251.723529 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 11.792194 17.257187 28.031765 59.154958 276.279397 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 11.358114 16.670063 27.211804 58.090720 286.246429 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 11.044474 16.288932 26.812942 58.387823 317.360248 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 10.704116 15.837904 26.216112 57.860615 337.619777 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.368121 15.377750 25.561146 56.993928 351.950407 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 10.059016 14.953773 24.956721 56.201026 367.619462 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 9.794028 14.601417 24.490774 55.842111 394.117710 NaN NaN